Tag: Recidivism

Criminal Risk Assessment and the Character Trap

People born in different years, even not that far apart, have wildly different outcomes.

Over the past three decades, successive birth cohorts in the United States have come of age in very different worlds of crime and its control. These shifting contexts shape people’s life chances in ways that challenge the belief in stable, individual propensities to commit crime and in timeless rules for predicting risk. Focusing on the life course of different birth cohorts — on when we are rather than who we are — reveals the power of the birth lottery of history.

This matters because common risk-assessment practices pervade the criminal justice system and extend well beyond it. Formal risk instruments are used to inform pretrial release and probation decisions, while criminal history information is used in sentencing, employment screening, tenant screening and occupational licensing. With the emergence of AI tools and large-scale databases, predictive risk assessment is accelerating.

But prognostications like these rest on assumptions of an individual’s stable criminal propensity or character. New research exposes the perils of this approach, revealing how rapidly changing times challenge common notions about prediction and enduring propensities to commit crime.

Read more HERE

INVESTIGATION: 70% of Shreveport’s accused killers have prior arrest records | Louisiana |

(The Center Square) – The killers struck just before 4 a.m., spraying a family’s apartment unit with bullets. For two men facing murder charges, their criminal careers on the streets
— Read on www.thecentersquare.com/louisiana/article_f68799d4-75b4-4f59-b2b7-20450245aa88.html

Teenage victims and criminals have increased since ‘raise the age’ law passed

This year, New York City residents have been benefitting from historic declines in shootings and homicides, and from less-sharp, but still meaningful, decreases in other crime categories.
— Read on nypost.com/2025/08/08/opinion/teenage-victims-and-criminals-have-increased-since-raise-the-age-law-passed/

Annual Probation Survey and Annual Parole Survey | Bureau of Justice Statistics

Collect administrative data from probation and parole agencies in the United States. Data collected include the total number of adults on state and federal probation and parole on January 1 and December 31 of each year, the number of adults entering and exiting probation and parole supervision each year, and the characteristics of adults under the supervision of probation and parole agencies. Published data include both national- and state-level data. The surveys cover all 50 states, the federal system, and the District of Columbia. They began in 1980 and are conducted annually.
— Read on bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/annual-probation-survey-and-annual-parole-survey

Why “Rehabilitating” Repeat Criminal Offenders Often Fails | Manhattan Institute

This report seeks to add much-needed perspective to America’s debate over criminal rehabilitation policies. Crucially, we document what is known and not known about the efficacy of rehabilitation programs in curtailing recidivism. We start by highlighting the psychological challenge of altering criminal behavior. We then review U.S. efforts to develop and deliver rehabilitation programs over […]
— Read on manhattan.institute/article/why-rehabilitating-repeat-criminal-offenders-often-fails