California violent crime tripled as suspects walked free without bail: reform study | Fox News

A new study comparing California offenders who posted bail with those were let out under “Zero Bail” found that the latter group reoffended sooner and more often.

Get a copy of the report HERE

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How does Arbitrarily Reducing Prison Sentences make Citizens Safer?

There is a recent article “The Public Safety Impact of Shortening Lengthy Prison Terms” (PDF here) in The Crime Report (paywall) that summarizes the study’s results for reducing lengthy prison sentences (10 year plus) by a few years. The Council on Criminal Justice released a report The Impact of Long Sentences on Public Safety: A Complex Relationship reporting the findings.

A 10 year sentence is for significant criminality. The problem is that the estimate of the impact from releasing the prisoners before the sentence end date is estimated too low. There are two studies “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 34 States in 2012: A 5-Year Follow-Up Period (2012–2017)” and “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 24 States in 2008: A 10-Year Follow-Up Period (2008–2018)” estimate recidivism for arrest 3 years after release at 61.5% & 66.2 % respectively. Calculating 1127 prisoners released. Let’s use 60% recidivism there would be 676 post-released prisoners who would commit a new crime in 3 years since their release. The 676 prisoners are estimated to commit 162 violent crimes (including murder) & 224 non-violent crimes. With these different estimates is releasing prisoners early worth additional criminal costs. There are additional crimes for each subsequent year culminating in a 70.5% arrest recidivism (34 State Study) and a 81.9% arrest recidivism (24 State Study) following release. These percentages are significant.

Unfortunately prisoners released early from prison appears only to result in placing society at early risk of more crime.

Weighing the Impact of Simple Possession of Marijuana | United States Sentencing Commission

(January 2023) This publication assesses recent trends in federal sentencing for simple possession of marijuana, as well as how prior sentences for simple possession affect criminal history calculations under the guidelines.
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Policy Recommendations to Renew and Reform New York State | Manhattan Institute

NOTE: Keep checking back new policy recommendations are added.

The following are policy recommendations adapted from the Empire Center’s The Next New York series, which aims to renew and reform New York state. Topics addressed by Manhattan Institute scholars for this briefing book include criminal justice, education, mental health, and…
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Podcast then Glenn Show: A discussion between Glenn Loury and Rafael Mangual about Mangual’s Book: “Criminal (In)Justice: What the Push for Decarceration and Depolicing Gets long and Who It Hurts Most”

If you haven’t read Rafael Mangual’s book it’s AWESOME!!  It’s an easy read pertinent to what is going on in policing and criminal justice. If you have never listen to the Glenn show before it is an awesome podcast.

This episode of the gun show highlights much of what is discussed in the book with Glenn Loury, playing devil’s advocate, and Rafael Manuel answering all his questions. I recommend listening to this podcast and then going out and getting the book. 

Glenn Loury (Manhattan Institute, Brown University) and Rafael Mangual (Manhattan Institute, Criminal (In)Justice: What the Push for Decarceration and Depolicing Gets long and Who It Hurts Most)
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Patterns of Juvenile Court Referrals of Youth Born in 2000

This bulletin describes the official juvenile court referral histories of more than 160,000 youth born in 2000 from 903 selected United States counties. Using data from the National Juvenile Court Data Archive, this bulletin focuses on the demographic and case processing characteristics of youth referred to juvenile court and the proportion of the cohort that was referred to juvenile court more than once, as well as histories defined as serious, violent, and chronic.

Who Gets Caught Doing Crime? | Bureau of Justice Statistics

This is an interesting article that discusses that amount of crime a criminal commits before getting caught. This is an important consideration when discussing recidivism, open cases, and reoffending.

Rand survey respondents were considered to be “high-rate” if they reported committing any one of seven types of crime at rates higher than 70 percent of respondents who also committed that crime. The offenders who are arrested frequently despite their relatively low rate of committing crimes are called “low-rate losers” in this study. The study shows that some arrestees with apparently extensive arrest histories are not high-rate, serious offenders. Rather, they are somewhat inept, unprofessional criminals who may be arrested nearly every time they commit a crime. Based on their arrest record alone, it is practically impossible to distinguish them from offenders who commit crimes at high rates. Based on this finding, the authors caution against trying to use as indicators of high-rate criminal behavior the total number of times individuals have been arrested or convicted as adults.

Who Gets Caught Doing Crime? | Bureau of Justice Statistics
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