How does Arbitrarily Reducing Prison Sentences make Citizens Safer?

There is a recent article “The Public Safety Impact of Shortening Lengthy Prison Terms” (PDF here) in The Crime Report (paywall) that summarizes the study’s results for reducing lengthy prison sentences (10 year plus) by a few years. The Council on Criminal Justice released a report The Impact of Long Sentences on Public Safety: A Complex Relationship reporting the findings.

A 10 year sentence is for significant criminality. The problem is that the estimate of the impact from releasing the prisoners before the sentence end date is estimated too low. There are two studies “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 34 States in 2012: A 5-Year Follow-Up Period (2012–2017)” and “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 24 States in 2008: A 10-Year Follow-Up Period (2008–2018)” estimate recidivism for arrest 3 years after release at 61.5% & 66.2 % respectively. Calculating 1127 prisoners released. Let’s use 60% recidivism there would be 676 post-released prisoners who would commit a new crime in 3 years since their release. The 676 prisoners are estimated to commit 162 violent crimes (including murder) & 224 non-violent crimes. With these different estimates is releasing prisoners early worth additional criminal costs. There are additional crimes for each subsequent year culminating in a 70.5% arrest recidivism (34 State Study) and a 81.9% arrest recidivism (24 State Study) following release. These percentages are significant.

Unfortunately prisoners released early from prison appears only to result in placing society at early risk of more crime.

Op/Ed: Police Stops Are Dangerous. Arrests Are Plummeting. Why Violence Is Increasing.

Ever wonder why violence is increasing?Are there reasons why arrests are plummeting, correctional populations are at record lows and thousands of cops are leaving?Accountability for criminal offenders reduces violence. No accountability means more violence.
— Read on www.lawenforcementtoday.com/op-ed-police-stops-are-dangerous-arrests-are-plummeting-why-violence-is-increasing/

Milwaukee Collaborative Reform Initiative

In January to October of 2016 the United States Department of Justice (US DOJ) performed an assessment of the Milwaukee Police Department (MPD) and the Milwaukee Fire and Police Commission (FPC). This was in response to a request by MPD Chief Flynn for the department to participate in the US DOJ Collaborative Reform Initiative in order to provide an avenue to strengthen and build the mutual trust between the MPD and the communities they serve. While due to decisions made in the US DOJ no final assessment report is likely to ever be produced from this process, a draft version of the report was made public.
— Read on city.milwaukee.gov/mkecr

Police Staffing Study – Canal Winchester, OH

The purpose of the staffing study for the City of Canal Winchester is to provide guidance to the Mayor and city legislative officials (city council) on matters concerning the desired staffing levels for law enforcement personnel assigned to patrol the city.

The study is designed to provide the City of Canal Winchester with information on the current levels of staffing (sworn personnel assigned by the Fairfield County Sheriff’s Office) as well as future staffing recommendations based on population, police activity, and management philosophies.

www.canalwinchesterohio.gov/DocumentCenter/View/4617/Canal-Winchester-Ohio-Staffing-Study-Final-Report-2023

One in 20 US homicides are committed by police – and the numbers aren’t falling | US policing | The Guardian

It is VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind that this article has a single premise – police are bad. There I save you a lot of reading.

Now if you have an open mind and look at the evidence keep the following in mind as you read the article.

  • Offenders are accountable for their behavior.
  • Police react to offender’s behavior.
  • Police make mistakes and police make bad decisions under life and death conditions.
  • Unarmed people can kill.
  • It is lawful for police to protect themselves and others.
  • Police do not have to be shot at before they can use deadly force.
  • Police have to use more force than the offender to overcome the offender’s force.
  • Police use of force many times is not easy or pretty.
  • Disproportionate by race to it’s population does not equal racism.
  • There are many factors that drive police-citizen contacts.

Police killings of any sort account for nearly 5% of all homicides, with at least 1,192 people killed by law enforcement in 2022
— Read on http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/15/us-homicides-committed-by-police-gun-violence

Amid soaring crime, Memphis cops lowered the bar for hiring | AP News

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) — Beyond the beating, kicking, cursing and pepper spraying, the video of Tyre Nichols’ deadly arrest at the hands of young Memphis police officers is just as notable for what’s missing — any experienced supervisors showing up to stop them.
— Read on apnews.com/article/law-enforcement-tyre-nichols-memphis-crime-93033874b99a4893c6c996fd56676795