A post on X that went viral recently laid out a series of statistics about the percentage of serious crimes — murder, rape, robbery, assault, and so on — that are committed by people with prior arrests. All hovered between 60 percent and 79 percent. The post’s conclusion: “You can incarcerate your way out of crime. Facts.” Elon Musk, the platform’s owner, amplified the post to his hundreds of millions of followers and sharpened the point: “Either incarcerate or innocent people suffer.” To date, these two posts have nearly 50 million views each. 

The claims in these posts are worth unpacking. First, Musk uses the correct metric: Reducing the suffering of innocent people is the proper goal of any criminal justice system, and public safety policy should be evaluated primarily by that standard. Musk is also correct in an important, albeit limited, sense: Failing to incapacitate genuinely dangerous people will lead to some level of crime and suffering that would have otherwise been avoided.

— Read on www.niskanencenter.org/we-cant-incarcerate-our-way-out-of-crime-but-we-can-deter-a-lot-more-of-it/